California's congressional delegation is heading toward the first major shake-up of its 53 member U.S. House line-up in at least a decade because of more competitive districts and a law that changed the traditional primary system used to nominate candidates for the general election.The new reality has the California political establishment rewriting the traditional election playbooks for congressional races. "We are in uncharted waters quite honestly," said Ben Tulchin, a California Democratic pollster and political strategist.

Nowhere in the state is this more evident than in the Los Angeles-based 30th District, which has pitted two Democratic incumbents, Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, against each other in both the primary and general election contests because of a 2012 redistricting process that created a newly drawn district coveted by both incumbents, who chose to run against each other.

Sherman defeated Berman in Tuesday's primary election by a 10-percentage-point margin, but a 2010 California law altered the primary system to put all of the candidates for certain offices on one primary ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the November ballot.

Sherman is now the perceived front-runner, but both he and Berman will have to appeal to Republican and independent voters to win in November. Forty-nine percent of the district's voters are Democrats, but Republicans are one-quarter of the electorate, and 21% are not affiliated with either party.

The new ballot rules have prompted backlash from party officials. "It's the dumbest … thing there is," said John Burton, chairman of the California Democratic Party, who called system undemocratic because it gives voters fewer options on a general election ballot when the only two candidates represent the same party.

Party officials are less divided on a similar Democratic incumbent match-up in the Los Angeles-based 44th district between Reps. Janice Hahn and Linda Richardson after Hahn defeated Richardson, who has been plagued by allegations of ethics violations, by a hefty 20-percentage-point margin.

The state party has already endorsed Hahn, who is heavily favored to win in November. A Richardson victory "is just not going to happen; the primary clearly showed that," said veteran California Democratic strategist Garry South.

The two matchups guarantee at least two incumbents won't be returning, and a third, Democratic Rep. Pete Stark, could be vulnerable after a narrow 6-percentage-point primary win over Eric Swalwell, a Democratic local elected official, cast doubts over Stark's ability to win in November. "It might be time to re-engage in his belief in God and start praying," South said of the self-described atheist Stark's re-election prospects.

California's new district lines were drawn by a non-partisan commission that ignored many incumbents' concerns about the shape and partisan makeup of their districts. In 2002, the last time House members ran in new districts, no incumbent lost re-election.

The new map helped hasten the retirements of five incumbents, four Republicans and one Democrat, who found themselves in less hospitable districts this year.

Democrats see California as a critical state for Republican seat pickups in their uphill effort to net 25 House seats and take over the House majority, currently ruled by Republicans with a 242-190 advantage.

However, the party's hope of a net gain of seven seats was diminished on Tuesday after the party failed to get a Democrat on the ballot to challenge GOP Rep. Gary Miller in a Democratic-leaning district. Republicans are also well-positioned to compete in November for two open seats where no incumbent is running.

Democrats will direct the driving force of their campaign efforts at defeating GOP Reps. Dan Lungren, Jeff Denham, and Brian Bilbray.

Burton was cautious in his expectations for Democratic gains. "The activists will be working hard to pick up those seats," he said. "It'll depend on turnout, but I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican."

By: USA Today
Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-06/california-congress-delegation-primary/55431724/1